Kineski tajfun

CFA Institute redovito objavljuje na tjednoj osnovi ankete, gdje ugledni financijski stručnjaci i članovi daju svoje glasove na određenu temu. Ovaj put je to sve izglednija financijska kriza u Kini, koja je sve samo ne bezopasna.

Objavljujem u nastavku original s engleskog jezika, izvori su stranice: i

Komentar g. Rona Rimkusa, CFA iz CFA Institute-a, možete naći na dnu.

Reader Survey

Are the sharp sell-off in Chinese stocks and the efforts to restrain shadow lending by the People’s Bank of China signs of greater troubles ahead for the Chinese economy?

Yes — China’s problems are worsening and future GDP growth will be materially constrained


Not clear yet


Yes — China’s declining markets are indicative of future losses in Chinese shares


No — Chinese equities are attractively priced despite sluggish fundamentals


No — the worst is behind them and the Chinese economic picture will begin to improve


Poll analysis
The People’s Bank of China recently embarked on a strategy to limit so-called shadow lending throughout the Chinese economy. The PBOC has specifically asked commercial lenders to focus on lending into the “real” economy and to avoid lending for “financial speculation.” Consequently, commercial lending rates have risen dramatically, and the formal banking system has endured a severe liquidity crunch, which required massive liquidity injections from the PBOC. This event joins other signs of the weakening of the Chinese economy and has sent shares of Chinese stocks into bear market territory. It appears that investors have not only noticed but also expect further deterioration of the Chinese economy. Of the 897 respondents to our poll, about 60% expect further deterioration of the Chinese economy and/or ongoing weakness in Chinese share prices. Other respondents indicated that they think the direction of China is unclear at this point (25%), which leaves only 15% of respondents who are bullish on China.”

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